When the Broncos hired Sean Payton as their next head coach last February, their fans were excited, expecting an instant return to playoff relevance.
After Denver started 1-5, and the defense allowed 70 points in one game, they weren’t so sure.
Then, going into last Saturday’s big test against the Lions in Detroit with a 7-6 record, playoff hopes were revived and enthusiasm renewed.
But now, there are rumblings of doubt again following that 42-17 shellacking in the Motor City.
The defense suddenly looked more like it did in Miami than it had over the previous eight games. The offense did nothing in the first half.
And an NFL Network camera caught the coach, who eschewed the challenge flag on consecutive questionably unsuccessful cracks at the goal line, absolutely reaming his quarterback after what should have been a touchdown drive ended in a field goal.
So, is Payton the savior of last February and from mid-October through most of November?
Or is the jury still out after losses in two of the past three games, a .500 record with three games left to play, and no postseason berth likely even if the Broncos win their last three?
The view from here is that his patience and experience have Denver turning the corner. Consider:
In Payton’s first five games as Broncos head coach, the opposition averaged 36.2 points per game. If he had fired defensive coordinator Vance Joseph at that point, the cheers would have been louder than your typical Sunday at the stadium.
But Payton stood behind his choice.
And what happened? The defense allowed a TOTAL of 80 points during the five-game winning streak and held the opposition to an average of 16 points per game through the eight that followed that dreadful start. (Chalk up the Detroit debacle to facing a superior team, on its home turf.)
As the trade deadline approached at the end of October, speculation was rampant that the Broncos would be sellers—to recoup some of the draft capital lost when the trade for Russell Wilson was made.
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton were mentioned most often, though the team’s most senior member, Justin Simmons, and young star, Patrick Surtain II, were rumored to be available, too.
And what happened? They’re all part of the turnaround.
Meanwhile, changes were made.
Expensive Randy Gregory, a disappointment since his signing as a free agent, was shipped out. So was Essang Bassey. And Damari Mathis was demoted.
In their places, Ja’Quan McMillan and Fabian Moreau improved the secondary, and Baron Browning returned from injury to add the pass rusher Gregory was supposed to be.
That sent a powerful message to the Denver locker room: The coach is not panicking; he believes in the players he’s got.
It takes an experienced coach, one with patience, to resist the apparent quick fix or refuse to give up on his roster and start looking to the future with half the season yet to be played.
Players know the difference, and what happened shows it.
In this instance, it also has helped that Payton is stubborn about his offense.
While the quarterback has been less than the superstar he was in Seattle in his prime, Mr. Wilson has done pretty much exactly what his coach has asked of him.
He doesn’t throw deep as often as he once did, and thus not for as many yards per game. But his QB Rating is near the top of the league and his mistakes are far fewer than last season.
Payton believes in running the ball, and Javonte Williams’ return from last season’s career-threatening knee injury has been just what his coach hoped for.
Samaje Perine has proven to be just what Denver expected when signing him as a free agent—reliable backup ball carrier, genuine threat as a receiver out of the backfield and dependable pass-blocker—and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin has provided another dimension with his speed.
As a result, a winning season—the first in seven years—seems highly probable, with home games versus New England and the Chargers preceding Game 17 in Las Vegas.
The Broncos aren’t a complete team, yet.
They’re not a Super Bowl contender, yet.
And odds are that even a 10-7 finish will miss the playoffs, though barely.
But Sean Payton has this team headed in the right direction.
Denny Dressman is a veteran of 43 years in the newspaper business, including 25 at the Rocky Mountain News, where he began as executive sports editor. He is the author of 15 books, nine of them sports-related. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.