What would you have done in Sean Payton’s shoes last Sunday?
The Broncos had just scored their second touchdown of the fourth quarter to cut what had been a 17-3 Philadelphia lead at the end of the third period to a single point, 17-16.
Kick the point after and tie the game with 7:36 left to play, and hope for another score to win?
That, of course, was the “safe” choice, the conservative option—the option most coaches choose most of the time.
Or try for a two-point conversion and take an 18-17 lead if you succeed?
That risked wasting a rally that had brought Denver within a point of tying the defending Super Bowl champs who had won 20 of their past 21 games.
Fail in that moment and the Broncos might not get another chance to take the lead. They could lose another close one and fall to 2-3.
“We had like seven-and-a-half minutes left,” Payton recalled. “We said, ‘Let’s keep being aggressive.’”
It wasn’t a high-percentage decision.
Across the past 10 seasons in the National Football League, “going for two” has worked less than half the time, according to analysis of the strategy’s use.
Data shows that coaches tend to attempt a pass almost three-fourths of the time but succeed on less than 40% of those calls. About 50% of rushing attempts, meanwhile, have been successful.
Which brings us back to the choice Sean Payton had before him—with an additional consideration.
If he kicked for the tie, and that turned out to be the last score in regulation, his team would be the statistical underdog in overtime. (The home team wins almost 60% of the time.)
He’d been here before. In Cincinnati, last December.
Bo Nix had thrown a 25-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims with eight seconds left to play, to cut the Bengals’ lead to a point, 24-23.
Nix held up two fingers, but the coach ignored him and kicked for a tie—only to lose in overtime.
This time?
“We came here to win a game,” Payton said postgame. “And I had two or three calls that I loved.
“We got to a call I had a lot of confidence in. And the guys executed.”
That last part is the key. A coach can make the daring decision, but then it comes down to the players.
“You win with people,” legendary Ohio State coach Woody Hayes titled his book decades ago.
In this case, it fell to Nix and his former college teammate at Oregon, Troy Franklin.
Payton explained that he expected the Eagles to defend Franklin with single coverage on the two-point try.
“Troy has got a really, really good first step,” Payton said. “When you watch the route, one jab and he was fantastic on it.”
Nix rolled to his right parallel to the goal line and fired to his teammate.
“It was a good throw,” Payton critiqued, “a throw you’ve got to make on the run.”
Said Nix: “Troy ran a great route we’ve been practicing for a couple weeks.”
The game wasn’t over at that point, of course. The Denver defense had to stop the Eagles for almost eight minutes, less whatever time the Broncos spent with the ball.
With a huge assist from two Philadelphia penalties that wiped out combined gains of 38 yards, Denver forced a punt then held possession for 11 plays, gaining 50 yards and, most importantly, consuming almost four minutes of remaining time.
And this where Payton’s confidence in Nix and Franklin really paid off.
Playing with a one-point lead instead of tied or down a point, Denver sent Will Lutz out for a 36-yard field goal that meant Philly would have to score a touchdown, not just kick a field goal, in the final minute and six seconds.
The Eagles came close, a last-play pass batted away in the end zone as time expired.
For all those fans who watched summer practice but didn’t recognize a contingency when they saw one, or wonder what, exactly, the team practices each week of the season, Troy Franklin had an answer.
“I’ve been doing it all week,” he said. “So, I just kind of put my mindset as like, ‘All right, just trust your technique.’”
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Denny Dressman’s 17th book, a collaboration with Kansas City artist Anthony High titled Black Baseball’s Heyday – Capturing An Era in Art and Words, will be published late this year. You can write to Denny at denny
dressman@comcast.net.