The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is five weeks away, and Colorado and Colorado State still have a chance of being part of it. Imagine that.
Even though the first actual playoff games won’t be held until Dec. 20-21, I say five weeks away because the conference championship games are set for Dec. 6-7.
The beauty of the new CFP is that conference championships are tantamount to playoff games, because their outcomes now have such a bearing on the CFP field. The winners of four conferences will receive first-round byes.
So that makes what happens in November pivotal, especially in this crazy year.
Take the Buffaloes and Rams, for example.
If either makes its conference’s championship game and wins it, they’re in—even though the Buffs have lost twice, and the Rams have three defeats (overall).
Currently, CU is tied for third in the Big 12 with only that 31-28 loss to Kansas State marring its conference record. In all games, the Buffs are 6-2 after clinching a bid to an (as yet-unnamed) bowl last Saturday night by defeating Cincinnati 34-23.
Coach Prime’s crew gets this week off before alternating road games at Texas Tech and Kansas and home games against Utah and Oklahoma State to close the regular season. All are winnable, though not locks.
BYU and Iowa State are both undefeated as of last Saturday and will meet in the Big 12 title game (with one of those byes at stake) unless at least one stumbles. That makes Colorado a longshot.
CSU, meanwhile, is tied with Boise State atop the Mountain West at 3-0 (and is one win away from bowl-eligibility).
Three of the Rams’ four remaining games are against teams at the bottom of the Mountain West standings (Nevada, Wyoming and Utah State). Only Fresno State has a winning record (and still a shot at making the conference championship game).
Win ‘em all, and CSU plays (most likely Boise State) for a first-round playoff berth.
Likewise, conference championships in the rest of the Big Four (what’s left of the Big Five after the Pac 12 imploded) are still up for grabs.
Texas A&M leads the SEC with a 5-0 record, followed closely by four one-loss teams: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and LSU. The Aggies end their regular season with the 119th rivalry game against Texas.
In the Big Ten, Oregon, Indiana (yes, Indiana) and Penn State are unbeaten, and Ohio State has one loss. Two of the Buckeyes’ remaining games are at Penn State (this weekend) and at home against Indiana. This year’s Michigan game (the 120th) is in Columbus.
Four teams—Clemson, Miami (Fla.), SMU and Pittsburgh have yet to lose an ACC game. Pitt plays both Clemson and SMU in future weeks, so that should go a long way toward sorting things out.
For years, what has made the college basketball national tournament such a compelling spectacle is its unpredictability. It consistently lives up to “March Madness.”
As we head into this November, the uncertainty of the conference races has brought anticipation and suspense to college football in a similar way.
Bear with me for a moment as I play the old “common opponent” game to demonstrate that anything can happen in the weeks to come.
Already during this season:
Old Dominion (the university in Virginia, not the trucking company) beat Georgia Southern, who beat Georgia State, who beat Vanderbilt, who beat Alabama, who beat Georgia, who beat Texas.
Also, Ball State beat Northern Illinois, who beat Notre Dame, who beat Texas A&M, who beat LSU. What next?
In effect, the CFP is underway almost two months before the first official playoff games.
So predicting which teams will make the field of 12 is a fool’s errand. But here goes:
Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State from the Big Ten; Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M from the SEC; Miami and Clemson from the ACC; BYU from the ACC; Boise State from the Mountain West; and still-independent Notre Dame.
And who will win it all?
I’d say Old Dominion, since the season’s dominoes show they could do it. But the Monarchs, though first in the Sun Belt Conference standings, are 4-4 and won’t make the field.
As for CU and CSU, the playoffs seem a bridge too far. At least they’ll both play in bowl games.
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Denny Dressman is a veteran of 43 years in the newspaper business, including 25 at the Rocky Mountain News, where he began as executive sports editor. He is the author of 16 books, nine of them sports-related. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.