Merry December 26!
Hope your Christmas was everything you wanted it to be.
Two days from now—Saturday, December 28—is a big day for area football fans.
As we await the quarterfinals of the first 12-team College Football Playoff next week, we have this to look forward to:
The Broncos going for their first season of double-digit victories since 2015, in Cincinnati against the Bengals, kickoff at 2:30 p.m. MST, on NFL Network;
Colorado State (8-4), a three-point underdog against Miami of Ohio (8-5), out to finish strong in the Arizona Bowl in Tucson, kickoff at 2:30 p.m. MST, on Channel 2 (CW Network); and
Coach Prime, Travis, Shedeur and the rest of the CU Buffaloes trying to reach 10 victories in a season for only the second time in the last 23 years by beating BYU in the Alamo Bowl, kickoff at 5:30 p.m. MST, on Channel 7 (ABC).
Of the three, CU’s bowl matchup is the most intriguing.
The Buffs and Cougars were two of the four teams that tied atop the Big 12’s regular-season final standings. Their 7-2 conference records matched those of Arizona State and Iowa State.
But tiebreakers put the Sun Devils and Cyclones in the Big 12 championship game, leaving CU and BYU to decide third place in the conference by meeting in San Antonio.
The Buffs are 5-point favorites, despite finishing 9-3 to BYU’s 10-2.
Why?
Maybe this examination of their overall schedules and performances against common opponents sheds a little light on oddsmakers’ thinking.
Then again, maybe not.
Each team won two of three outside the conference. Which one had the more difficult three games to start the season is a matter of opinion.
CU’s season-opening opponent was North Dakota State, which played South Dakota State in the semifinals of the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) playoffs last Saturday. BYU throttled Southern Illinois, which finished 4-8.
Week Two saw the Buffs lose to Nebraska, which finished .500 but is playing Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday morning, while Brigham Young edged SMU—the eventual 11th seed in the 12-team national championship playoff, 18-15.
That was the Mustangs’ only defeat until a last-play loss to Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game.
Each played a Mountain West team in its third game. CU beat intense in-state rival (and ultimately bowl-bound) CSU 28-9, while the Cougars beat up on Wyoming, which won only three of 12 games, 34-14.
In Big 12 play, both beat Central Florida, Baylor (which lost only two other games will play LSU in the Texas Bowl), Oklahoma State, Utah. But CU won more convincingly over Oklahoma State (52-0 to 38-35) and Utah (49-24 to 22-21).
Both lost to Kansas. BYU beat Kansas State, which beat CU—in Boulder.
Playing their second game against a team that made it into the 12-team FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) bracket, BYU lost to Arizona State by five points, 28-23.
BYU averaged 30.8 points on offense and allowed an average of 20.1. With Prime’s son throwing to several dynamic targets—including Heisman winner Travis Hunter—for 1,121 more yards than the Cougars, CU scored 34.5 points per game, while the Hunter-led defense gave up 22 per.
In the Associated Press poll, BYU is ranked 17th and CU 20th. In the Playoff Selection Committee’s final ratings, BYU was 17 and CU 23. In a poll of coaches, BYU is 17 and Colorado 22.
So why are the Buffs’ favored?
In reality, it has little or nothing to do with which team has the edge on paper.
The simple explanation is that the oddsmakers decided that the way to balance their risk on both teams—i.e. get bettors to wager equally, or close to it—was to give BYU some points.
The same logic applies to SCU-Miami. In my view, the Mountain West Conference is stronger than the Mid-American.
In the Broncos-Bengals game, meanwhile, the smart money will be on the team most in need of a victory. This could mean avoiding a losing season, reaching double figures in wins or building momentum for the postseason.
Home field is worth four points, according to those responsible for helping the house win more each week than the betting public.
I’m not a bettor. But if I were, I’d take CU and give the points, go with CSU plus the points, and steer clear of the game in Cincinnati.
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Denny Dressman’s 17th book, a collaboration with Kansas City artist Anthony High titled Black Baseball’s Heyday – Capturing An Era in Art and Words, will be published next spring. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.