Let’s play a little game. Call it Hindsight Quarterback.
In this game, Broncos fans get to choose—with the benefit of hindsight—the quarterback they would have picked to lead Denver in 2024 and beyond from among the six selected within the top 12 places in last April’s National Football League Draft.
Given what these six have done so far in their rookie seasons, would you dump Bo Nix (the last of the six drafted) for Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels (1-2)?
Or Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix Jr., who all were drafted ahed of Denver’s pick?
Or do you like what you’ve seen of Bo and think the Broncos got the best of the bunch despite being left with the last of the those six?
The six first-round quarterbacks in ’24 tied the record set in 1983, when John Elway was first overall. Of that year’s half-dozen picks, four took teams to the Super Bowl and three are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
But as successful as they were, it took 27 picks—far from 12—before the last, Dan Marino, who’s one of the HOFers—was chosen.
Will this year’s crop even approach, much less match or exceed, their total glory? And if so, which will do it?
Eleven weeks into each 2024 draftee’s debut season, here’s what he’s done:
Caleb Williams, USC, 1st pick, Chicago: 4-6 as a starter. 61.8% completion percentage, 2,016 passing yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions; 49 carries for 306 yards and no TDs (6.2 per carry)
Jayden Daniels, LSU, 2nd, Washington: 7-4 as a starter, 68.7% completion percentage, 2,338 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions; 92 carries for 482 yards and 4 TDs (5.2 per carry)
Drake Maye, UNC, 3rd, New England: 2-4 as a starter, 61.6% completion percentage, 1,236 passing yards, 9 touchdown passes and six interceptions; 28 carries for 260 yards (9.3 per carry)
Michael Penix Jr., Washington, 8th, Atlanta: has played 20 snaps. 3-for-5 passing for 38 yards; no carries
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan, 10th, Las Vegas: torn meniscus in first preseason game, season-ending surgery August 10; passed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in 30 plays against Minnesota in only preseason action.
It’s fair to say that through the first month of this season, Washington’s Daniels was the runaway choice among the six fledgling QBs. After a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay, he led the Commanders to four straight victories—and was dynamic doing it.
Since then, Washington is 3-3 and on a two-game losing streak. Still, 7-4 is terrific for a team that went 4-13 last season.
Caleb Williams got off to a good start, leading the Bears to a 4-2 record through six games. But he’s lost four straight, including last Sunday when the Packers blocked the Bears’ attempt at a game-winning field goal on the last snap of play. (Sound familiar?)
After Sunday’s 38-6 blowout of Atlanta, it’s now not surprising that Bo Nix might be viewed favorably. That’s how hindsight works.
After losing his fist two starts, Bo reminded some Broncos fans of a dozen other guys who tried to succeed Peyton Manning, without success.
But he’s been growing each week, and he blossomed against the Chiefs—even though a blocked field goal on the last play sent Denver to its second straight loss against a Super Bowl contender and evened its record at 5-5.
Against the Falcons last Sunday, Nix completed 28 of 33 passes for 307 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. It was the first game of his career in which he threw for 300-plus yards. His passer rating was 145.0.
He even had the guys on the Fox telecast saying he could wind up winning the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
Through 11 games, he has completed 63.8% of his passes for 2,275 yards, 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also run 63 times for 295 yards, a 4.7-yard average.
He leads the Hindsight Six in TD passes with those 14, and he’s second to Daniels in completion percentage. He’s also the only one who has caught a TD pass, too.
So, if you had known then what you know after 11 weeks, which quarterback would you have wanted Sean Payton to pick if he’d picked first last April?
In other words, who’s your Hindsight Quarterback?
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Denny Dressman is a veteran of 43 years in the newspaper business, including 25 at the Rocky Mountain News, where he began as executive sports editor. He is the author of 16 books, nine of them sports-related. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.