The 2024 National Football League draft is now history.
Or, to put it another way, speculation about the Broncos’ quarterback situation can move to its next phase.
Will Bo Nix become a fixture under center?
What about Zach Wilson?
Is Jarrett Stidham just yesterday’s news?
The truth—despite whatever Sean Payton or anyone else says—is that no one knows at this point.
There’s no better proof of the impossibility of trying to predict the future performance level of a prospective NFL quarterback than the league itself.
NFL.com posts what it labels a “Draft and Combine Prospect Profile” on every college draft prospect each year, including a detailed written evaluation and final grade.
Here’s the league’s grading table:
This year’s six first-round quarterbacks, listed in draft order, were graded as follows:
Caleb Williams, 6.74; Jayden Daniels, 6.73; Drake Maye, 6.50; Michael Penix Jr., 6.25; J.J. McCarthy, 6.40; Nix, 6.39.
All are considered potential starters, sooner or later. But not even the Heisman Trophy winners—Williams and Daniels—are projected to reach Pro Bowl status.
That doesn’t mean any of them can’t, or won’t, however. Pre-draft grades also don’t assure success to any degree.
Tom Brady was the 199th player drafted, in the sixth round, in 2000. (The current grading table was not in use then.) One scouting report read, in part:
“. . . Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can’t drive the ball down the field . . . Gets knocked down easily.”
At the Combine in 2000, Brady ran the 40-yard dash in 5.3 seconds—the second-slowest time of all the quarterbacks in attendance that year and the fourth-slowest in the past quarter-century. His vertical jump of 24.5 inches also was near the bottom.
None of that mattered. The seventh quarterback drafted in 2000 wound up playing 23 seasons, won seven Super Bowls, and is considered by most the greatest NFL quarterback of all time.
Patrick Mahomes, winner of three Super Bowls before the age of 29, had a 6.30 grade (will eventually be plus starter) in 2017.
So? In his first seven seasons he was twice the league most valuable player and three times the Super Bowl MVP.
Taken eight picks ahead of Mahomes—second by the Bears—was Mitchell Trubisky, whose grade was 7.0 (Pro Bowl talent).
He has played for three teams and is now a backup in Buffalo. (He did make one Pro Bowl.)
Mahomes’ opposing quarterback in this year’s Super Bowl was Brock Purdy—despite a 5.57 grade (priority undrafted free agent). The 49ers made him the last player drafted in 2022, and last season he led the NFL in passer rating (113.0).
Getting back to the Broncos, Bo Nix will not be the QB with the highest NFL pre-draft grade, nor the highest draft choice, in camp.
That will be Zach Wilson, acquired in a trade with the Jets the week before the draft.
Wilson’s grade was 6.50 when New York picked him second in 2021.
“Boom or bust potential” certainly described him, based on his three disappointing seasons in The Big Apple. But he won’t be 25 until August, so there’s still time for him to move from bust to boom with a fresh start.
At the least, he should push rookie Nix and incumbent Jarrett Stidham, who, incidentally, preceded Nix at Auburn, where Nix began his college career. Stidham’s pre-draft grade was 6.10 (good backup with potential to develop into starter).
The Broncos’ fruitless search for the next “John Elway/Peyton Manning” has been well-documented. But in the context of drafting Bo Nix, it’s worth recalling their last two attempts to draft the next star signal-caller.
Both Paxton Lynch, 26th pick in Round 1 in 2016, and Drew Lock, 10th pick in Round 2 in 2019, had higher pre-draft grades than Nix.
And we know how they did.
Denny Dressman is a veteran of 43 years in the newspaper business, including 25 at the Rocky Mountain News, where he began as executive sports editor. He is the author of 16 books, nine of them sports-related. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.