Will the 2026 Rockies avoid losing 100 or more games for the fourth season in a row?
Can Colorado climb out of the National League Western Division cellar after finishing last in the West the past four years?
SCOTTSDALE, AZ—After spending a week at Rockies Spring Training—a Christmas present from my spectacular wife—I believe the answers to the two questions on the minds of all Rockies fans depend on the outcomes of a bunch of unknowns as Opening Day looms.
While moving up in the standings in part requires at least one other team, presumably Arizona or San Francisco, to falter, losing fewer than 100 games is up to the Rockies. That is possible.
Here are the IFs I think will decide how the ’26 Rockies fare:
IF . . . Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle both return to their 2024 form;
(Both won Gold Gloves in 2024, neither in ’25. And their offensive performance declined.)
IF . . . Kyle Freeland posts only the second winning season of his career;
(In 2018, his second major league season, Freeland went 17-7 with a 2.85 earned run average, almost no-hit the Chicago White Sox—at Coors Field, no less—and finished fourth in voting for the Cy Young Award. It looked like Colorado had an ace in the making. But in seven seasons since, he is 37-72 with a composite 4.90 ERA, including seasons of 3-11, 6-14 and 5-17,)
IF . . . Hunter Goodman can at least match last season;
(How do you improve on a Silver Slugger year that was the best ever by a Rockies catcher? He had an underwhelming spring this year ,but does that matter?)
IF . . . The three veteran starters added to the rotation—Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano— average 25 starts apiece;
(It remains to be seen what the Rockies got by signing these three, since they all spent the heart of camp with World Baseball Classic teams. They’re all in their mid-30s with more than 10 years of major league experience, so if any pitchers can adapt to altitude, they should be up to it.)
IF . . . Jordan Beck takes a big step forward in his development.
(Rockies manager Warren Schaefer has said that he thinks Beck has superstar potential. In his third major league season, at age 26, it’s time.)
IF . . . The Rockies finish among the top 10 Major League teams in stolen bases;
(In 2025 the Rockies ranked 23rd in the majors with 87 steals. We’re not talking the second coming of the Blake Street Bombers with this team. Schaefer knows he will need to manufacture runs. If spring games this year are any indication, 120 steals seems in the ballpark.)
IF . . . Mickey Moniak continues to increase his offensive production;
(The first player chosen in the 2016 draft—by the Phillies, Moniak had the best season of his six in the majors last year and might finally be ready to perform to the level of a 1-1 pick, at age 28. He’s also expressed a desire to be a clubhouse leader as he hits his prime.)
IF . . . Kyle Karros takes charge at third base and in his first full season in the Bigs bats at least .260 with 15 home runs and 60 runs batted in; and
(His father hit .257 with 20 homers and 80 RBI his first year as a starter for the Dodgers. And in his first year for the Rockies, Nolan Arenado batted .267 with 10 homers and 52 runs batted in.)
IF . . . Someone—T.J. Rumfield, Troy Johnston, Blaine Crim, Eduard Julien or ___?___ becomes the regular first baseman and consistently hits higher than eighth in the batting order.
(Finding a long-term replacement for Todd Helton has proven as difficult for the Rockies as coming up with a fixture to succeed John Elway was for the Boncos. From Morneau to Bernabel, Colorado has had 33 players take the field at first base in the 12 years since Helton retired.)
The regular season starts in Miami next weekend. Then we’ll begin to see which IFs pan out and if they’re enough to keep the losses under 100.
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Denny Dressman writes a weekly sports column for The Villager. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.
Who’s on first only one of Schaefer’s decisions
By DENNY DRESSMAN
SCOTTSDALE, AZ—In the 1930s, Lou Costello asked Bud Abbott, “Who’s on first?” And Abbott answered, ”Yes.”
Decades later that skit earned Abbott & Costello a place in the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
And today, the opening lines describe the decision facing Rockies manager Warren Schaefer as he constructs the roster he’ll take into battle when Colorado starts the 2026 season in Miami next weekend.
T.J. Rumfield? Troy Johnston? Eduard Julien? Charlie Condon?
Somebody has to take Todd Helton’s old place.
My prediction is Rumfield, who was acquired from the Yankees in trade for reliever Angel Chivilli in late January.
I don’t think he’ll hit for high average, but he gives the Rockies more power threat than either Johnston, who seems destined for Albuquerque, or Julien, who came to Denver in a trade with Minnesota and thus is more assured of a place on the team. Condon, a prized prospect, will begin the season at AAA.
Who backs up Hunter Goodman is another interesting decision Schaefer must make.
It might be Brett Sullivan instead of the seemingly obvious choice of Braxton Fulford—for the unfortunate reason that Fulford is so highly thought of that they want him to play regularly, which he can do at Albuquerque.
Sullivan is a journeyman who might be better-suited to limited, intermittent playing time.
And then there’s the pitching staff.
Ryan Feltner, Chase Dollander and Tanner Gordon are contending for the fifth spot in the rotation. I’d go with Gordon or Dollander, but Feltner, who is coming back from an injury and has the most Major League experience, likely will get first call. The Rockies believe other two will benefit from more time in the minors.
Most of the bullpen spots are claimed. The lone remaining spot will go to either Jaden Hill, John Brebbia, Keegan Thompson or Adam Laskey.
I favor Brebbia, who will join Jimmy Herget and Antonio Senzatela in providing some veteran seasoning for a young nucleus, but hard-throwing Hill has a lot of support.
This might be a good year to be a fan in Albuquerque.