With the Avalanche and Nuggets eliminated from their playoffs and the Rockies once again going nowhere, it’s not too early to assess the Broncos’ recently announced 2026 schedule and speculate on their postseason prospects.
Based on the won-lost records for all teams in the 2025 season, Denver has the 15th toughest schedule this year. Last season it ranked 16th.
The 2026 schedule also is the easiest of all four AFC West teams, based on last year’s records. Kansas City has the fifth-toughest schedule in all of pro football; the Raiders seventh and the Chargers ninth.
Fourteen of the Broncos’ 17 games, which include all three AFC West home-and-home matchups, are against teams with tougher schedules.
Seeking to go all the way this season after falling just short against New England, the Broncos begin and finish with arguably their toughest stretches of 2026-27
After the season-opener in Kansas City on Monday Night Football Sept. 14, Denver plays:
Jacksonville (13-4 last season) and the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) in Denver, then the 49ers (12-5) and Chargers (11-6) on the road, followed by defending Super Bowl champion Seattle at home—on short rest, a Thursday night game. Oct. 15.
A particularly emotional test is sure to be “the Walmart Bowl,” when Walmart-heir-by-marriage Stan Kroenke brings his Rams to Denver to visit Walmart-heir-by-marriage Greg Penner and the Broncos.
The eight games between October 25 and December 25 feature only one team with a winning record is 2025, the Steelers, 10-7. Another, though, is Kansas City, which remains feared despite coming off a 6-11 season, and another, Carolina, won the NFC South Division and qualified for the playoffs with an overall 8-9 record.
Christmas Day features tough one at home against Buffalo (12-5 in ’25), followed by a trip to the Super Bowl runners-up Patriots (14-3) in what could be frosty New England on Jan. 3. The regular season ends in Denver with the year’s second meeting against the Chargers, who likely will be contending for a playoff spot.
Have you wondered how the National Football League develops its schedule?
George W. Bush was in the second year of his first term. The rubble and anger of the 9/11 attack remained top of mind. And the NFL had realigned into the eight, four-team divisions we know today.
The “core schedule” adopted in 2002 and still in use now called for:
Home-and-away games against the other three teams in the same division;
Games against one entire division from the same conference, on a rotating three-year cycle (for Denver this year, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins and Jets);
Games against one entire division from the opposing conference on a rotating four-year cycle (for Denver this year, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals); and
Two intraconference games matching teams that finished in the corresponding position in the previous year’s standings (for Denver this year, the Jaguars and Steelers).
A 17th game was added in 2021—against a team from the opposite conference based on the prior season’s standings (for Denver this year, the Carolina Panthers).
I would argue that Denver faces a tougher road to the Super Bowl to be held in Stan Kroenke’s So-Fi Stadium next Feb. 14 than the Strength of Schedule formula suggests.
Both ESPN and FanDuel Sports Book rank Kroenke’s Rams the top choice to win it all, beating the Baltimore Ravens. The next NFC contender is defending champ Seattle, and second choice in the AFC is Buffalo.
Of those four, Denver plays all but the Ravens. On the bright side, all three are in Denver.
It’s also fair to question the validity of all this.
Same time last year, the Over/Under on Denver victories in the coming season was 9.5. (The Broncos won 14 and came within a broken ankle of going to the Super Bowl.)
The top six teams projected to reach the Super Bowl were Philadelphia, Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, Green Bay and Detroit. (Two teams, Baltimore and Kansas City, finished with losing records, and Detroit missed the postseason despite a 9-8 finish.)
None of the others made it to Levi’s Stadium—only Buffalo even winning a playoff game among them.
So, what should all this tell you?
As my dad always told me, don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose.
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Denny Dressman writes a weekly sports column for The Villager. You can write to Denny at dennydressman@comcast.net.