The questions began a couple weeks ago, things like:
Will Spring Training start on time?
Do you think the start of the season will be delayed?
When will the lockout end?
Well, we already know the answer to the first one. Pitchers and catchers were supposed to have reported by now, but the camps are quiet.
Beyond that, let’s look at some of what’s happened so far.
The lockout began on December 2, as soon as the last contract between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association expired at 11:59 p.m. December 1. That’s 85 days ago, as of today.
In the first two-and-a-half months, the sides met in six—that’s SIX—collective bargaining sessions, or one every 14—that’s FOURTEEN—days.
The Players Association submitted a proposal to MLB on February 1. The owners responded with a counterproposal 11 days later. And the players found it underwhelming, despite Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred’s hype a few days earlier. Since then, there’s been virtually no progress; the sides remain far apart on economic issues such as minimum salary, luxury tax, arbitration eligibility, and free agency and draft pick compensation—among others.
So, it’s hard to believe that either side is serious yet. And thus, it’s anybody’s guess when the bargaining stalemate will end (though labor law would allow the owners to end the lockout and proceed while continuing to bargain—highly unlikely.).
It should be noted that the players aren’t paid for spring games, so they don’t have anything to lose and might have some leverage if games aren’t played. Only the owners have anything to lose—spring training gate receipts, which in many cases are significant. The first spring games were supposed to be played next Monday.
Now, MLB says the first spring games could be played March 5. That’s in line with a previous statement that camps would have to open by February 28 if regular season games are to begin on time. We’ll see.
With each passing day, this is looking more and more like the 1994 players strike, which ended that season on August 11. As you may recall, it also caused the cancellation of the post-season, including the World Series for the first time since 1904, when the New York Giants refused to play the winner of what they claimed was an inferior American League, in its second year of operation. And that strike delayed the start of the 1995 season (and the official opening of Coors Field) until April 26—ending then only because a federal judge intervened. In that instance, it was March 1997 before a new contract was agreed upon.
You would think the sides would have learned something from that bitter work stoppage. And maybe they did. Twenty-six years of relative labor peace followed.
But that was two-and-a-half decades ago. The parties have changed with the passage of time.
Only nine owners remain from then; control of the other 21 clubs—more than two-thirds—is in the hands of people who did not experience any of the consequences of the unwillingness of the sides to come together for the good of the game. If they are willing to take the same kind of hard-line approach prevalent in 1994-95, they’ll have to learn the hard way what that will do to baseball.
And the players? Not one, of course, is part of the current generation.
Max Scherzer, for example, who has been outspoken on behalf of the players, was two weeks past his 10th birthday when the players walked out in ’94. Yankees reliever Zach Britton, who took to Twitter recently to make the players’ case, was six years old. Tony Clark, executive director of the MLBPA, was 22 but not yet a big-league player. He’d get into 27 games for the Detroit Tigers in the strike-shortened ’95 season.
The last baseball labor confrontation lasted 232 days. During that ordeal, Rob Manfred, who succeeded Bud Selig in 2015, served as outside counsel for the owners. He joined MLB full-time three years later as Executive Vice President of Economics and League Affairs. It would seem that he, if not others, would remember vividly what that last protracted bargaining did to baseball.
In a press conference at the conclusion of the quarterly owners meetings in Orlando two weeks ago, Manfred said that missing regular-season games because of the lockout would be “a disastrous outcome.” Still . . .
The sides seem to be getting more serious, with bargaining scheduled daily this week. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll come together by the end of Friday’s session.
So, will the start of the 2022 Major League season be delayed?
My boss always told me the bargaining doesn’t really begin until the sweat starts to pop. Neither side seems to be sweating, just yet.
Denny Dressman is a veteran of 43 years in the newspaper business, including 25 at the Rocky Mountain News, where he began as executive sports editor. He is the author of 13 books, seven of them sports-related. You can write to Denny at denny
dressman@comcast.net.